Brent's price pressure at US$64/barrel is driven by two main factors: the Middle East risk premium has shrunk following progress in the Gaza ceasefire (the market is pricing in a reduced risk of supply disruptions), and US stockpiles have risen more than expected, signaling relatively loose supply. On the policy front, OPEC+ has only increased production marginally, not enough to offset concerns about a global surplus—thus, prices remain fragile at low levels.
Furthermore, the overall picture remains somewhat bearish: the EIA projects an increase in global inventories and an average Brent price of US$62 in the fourth quarter of 2025 (a narrative of oversupply), while the return of Iraqi Kurdistan oil flows through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline could potentially boost physical supply. Alternatively, prices could rebound if OPEC+ signals more aggressive production cuts or demand data improves; but for now, abundant supply and a thinning risk premium are holding back gains.(asd)
The Brent oil price at the time of writing was $64.83.
Disclaimer:
This article is analytical in nature and is not a definitive reference. Consider fundamental and technical developments in trading before making any investment decisions.
Source: Newsmaker.id
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